Tuesday, June 10, 2008

The nature of the Minorities in Female voting for Second in the City

The core problem with Democracy is the often minorities are right, majorities are wrong. In politics this will often be resolved by the results of the outcome, with leaders failing and lossing a majority. But in decisions that are final like Culture votes construct but don't impact directly. If the majority feels that culture should not include certain historical facts or pieces of art the results may be decades to feel and rather subtle.

It is impossible in a vote to establish those issues to which the majority has made justice, sustainable, rational evaluation and those where it is a mob. In both cases a minority opinion is expressed, but how can you tell if they are crack-pots or intelligensia?

Well lets take Sex and the City and the femaile IMDB vote. A movie of this limited quality is essentialy a random flip of the coin. People will like it or not, assuming they are rational in a fairly random level (okay its more rational to hate it but let us try to be objective about it.)

Now let us look at a minority of women in IMDS SatC vote. on a scale of 1 to 10 how many gave votes of 5 or below.


146 2.2%5
94 1.4%4
76 1.2%3
105 1.6%2
433 6.6%1



13%.

I would go on to say having seen the film, and being a big fan of many movies told from the female point of view, I would call this the sane minority.

Now among females voting for IMDB on Citizen Kane:

402 3.7%5
244 2.3%4
176 1.6%3
154 1.4%2
544 5.1%1

13.1%.

There is really no way to tell which is which from the movie itself.  Crack-pops and wise doubters seem to exist in the same numbers.

I would also point to Iraq war and supporting of Bush today.

Going in to war in Iraq was popular in the US, and it was a brave community who resolve against it. 

ABC News Poll. March 5-9, 2003. N=1,032 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch.






.

"Would you favor or oppose having U.S. forces take military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power?" Asked of half the sample


Favor Oppose No
Opinion




% % %


3/03 65 30 5


2/19-23/03 63 31 6


2/6-9/03 66 31 2


2/5/03 67 27 6


1/30 - 2/1/03 66 31 3


1/28/03 63 32 5


1/27/03 61 36 3


1/16-20/03 57 41 3


12/02 62 35 3


11/02 64 29 7


9/23-26/02 61 34 5


9/12-14/02 68 29 3


8/29/02 56 34 10


8/7-11/02 69 22 9


3/02 72 24 4


1/02 71 24 4


12/01 72 24 5


11/01 78 17 6


We see a minority of around 30% opposed it.  At this time many dismissed this group as the typical anti-military liberals and that was probably true.  But now look at Bush approval ratings.

PRESIDENT BUSH – Overall Job Rating in national polls



  See also: Complete trend

Survey

Approve Disap-
prove
Unsure Approve
minus


Dates % % % Disapprove





.



  CNN/Opinion Research 6/4-5/08 32 65 2 -33

.


  CBS 5/30 - 6/3/08 25 67 8 -42

.


  USA Today/Gallup 5/30 - 6/1/08 28 68 4 -40

.


  Quinnipiac RV 5/8-12/08 28 67 5 -39

.


  ABC/Washington Post 5/8-11/08 31 66 2 -35

.


  NPR LV 5/7-8,10/08 33 65 3 -32

.


  CBS/New York Times 5/1-3/08 28 63 9 -35

.


  USA Today/Gallup 5/1-3/08 28 67 5 -39

.


  Diageo/Hotline RV 4/30 - 5/3/08 33 63 5 -30

.


  CNN/Opinion Research 4/28-30/08 28 71 1 -43

.


  FOX/Opinion Dynamics RV 4/28-29/08 32 60 8 -28

.


  CBS/New York Times 4/25-29/08 28 65 7 -37

.


  NBC/Wall Street Journal RV

4/25-28/08 27 66 7 -39

.


  Pew 4/23-27/08 27 65 8 -38


We see essentially the same sized minority.


So for someone indexing Web 2.0 products how to know what is more solid?

Some first try rules:

1. The longer the voters experience with an event the more likely a minority is wise than in denial.
2. The presence of opinions in other clusters.  For Bush in 2003 Americans stool almost alone in the world in support the war, in 2008 they are now one with the world population.


The quality of a culture of political vote comes from the experience of the voters with the issue and the diversity.

A global poll taken in Europe of the greatest books of all times will be better if texts of the last 20 years is taken out.  Much better still if all on it read actively.  It will be better still if they read a diversity of genres.  And better still if people from other parts of the world are included.
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