Thursday, September 04, 2008

America's Thacher?

As for this election, I could be wrong but I imagine its already over. The DNC was a lot more than one good first time speech. Both the Clintons and the Obamas performed at the highest level. The conditions are in their favor. The war in Iraq has exhausted and confused people. The failure to pursue Bin Laden has further made people cynical. On top of the US policy has isolated the US in a way many Americans have trouble with.

On top of this Bush's economic record is a joke. He has pursued a policy of cheap money which has directly raised the price of oil and caused the housing bubble and collapse. He has shown utter indifference to job creating industries like R&D and IT, even banning stem cell research, while lavishing tax cuts to commodity producers who create few jobs but large amounts of investor wealth.

The economy sucks, global warming is scary, the nation feels confused about the world, and people are sick of a negative bleak terror state.

Right now the nation needs the Historic event that is Obama. McCain with Palin won't do.

But in the future, maybe 8 years from now we might be seeing the first female President. Would she be any good? Generally it is my experience that conservative reformers pursue a zero-gain game of wealth distribution. Economic growth picks up but public life is harmed. And the wealth growth is often highly speculative leading to a Bush bomb, a society where public life has been diminished and economic conditions are poor.

But it might be good for the first woman to be a neo-liberal (if that is what she is) Republican. It would seperate gender from politics, meaning that the political status of women would not be linked to one party.

But she may be a neo-conservative. She probably does not know herself. She follows a very conservative approach to family. But in policy it would be hard to tell much about anyone in Alaska. Alaskian politicans come in two forms: indited and about to be indited. Its not a very good testing ground for politics in the rest of the nation, which problems and opportunities utterly unique to itself.

Perhaps her time may come. If the legal system around marriage is resolved in the next 8 years than her personal family life could likely have no impact on public policy, she would be bound by law to respect a wider concept of unions.

But right now she gave one speech. Over the next few months she will be exposed in an election her team will certainly lose. Where she goes from there is entirely up to her now.

But maybe it will be Hillary vs Palin in 2016?

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