Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Iowa Elections Market in September

The Iowa Elections Market has held odds steady with Obama vs McCain in September


These markets are open continuously. Low/High/Average prices refer to prices beginning at 12:00:01am and ending at 11:59:59pm. LastPrice refers the price of the last trade before midnight. Today's prices are not included in this list.

Date     Contract     Units     $Volume     LowPrice     HighPrice     AvgPrice     LastPrice
09/01/08     UDEM08_VS 10 5.200 0.520 0.520 0.520
  • 0.520
09/01/08     UREP08_VS 0 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.489
09/02/08     UDEM08_VS 346 195.441 0.527 0.650 0.565
  • 0.530
09/02/08     UREP08_VS 43 20.274 0.466 0.474 0.471 0.472
09/03/08     UDEM08_VS 167 88.584 0.530 0.540 0.530
  • 0.532
09/03/08     UREP08_VS 3 1.404 0.468 0.468 0.468 0.468
09/04/08     UDEM08_VS 28 14.856 0.530 0.532 0.531
  • 0.530
09/04/08     UREP08_VS 57 26.918 0.469 0.474 0.472 0.471
09/05/08     UDEM08_VS 182 99.712 0.538 0.575 0.548
  • 0.540
09/05/08     UREP08_VS 148 69.325 0.455 0.473 0.468 0.461
09/06/08     UDEM08_VS 148 80.096 0.540 0.549 0.541
  • 0.540
09/06/08     UREP08_VS 77 35.906 0.456 0.470 0.466 0.470
09/07/08     UDEM08_VS 377 204.268 0.522 0.558 0.542
  • 0.522
09/07/08     UREP08_VS 394 183.656 0.458 0.473 0.466 0.465
09/08/08     UDEM08_VS 25 13.043 0.521 0.529 0.522
  • 0.525
09/08/08     UREP08_VS 126 60.656 0.473 0.484 0.481 0.484
09/09/08     UDEM08_VS 66 34.445 0.521 0.525 0.522
  • 0.521
09/09/08     UREP08_VS 65 31.256 0.480 0.485 0.481 0.480


Obama continues to have 4.1 cent lead, meaing the odds are still 52% Obama and 48% McCain.  This during Palin Mania.  This is the vote share market.

On the winner take all markets thigns are very different, but Obama contines to have a comfortable lead

These markets are open continuously. Low/High/Average prices refer to prices beginning at 12:00:01am and ending at 11:59:59pm. LastPrice refers the price of the last trade before midnight. Today's prices are not included in this list.

Date     Contract     Units     $Volume     LowPrice     HighPrice     AvgPrice     LastPrice
09/01/08     DEM08_WTA 424 256.645 0.600 0.610 0.605
  • 0.602
09/01/08     REP08_WTA 2,701 1,086.106 0.392 0.425 0.402 0.395
09/02/08     DEM08_WTA 2,534 1,543.558 0.601 0.615 0.609
  • 0.606
09/02/08     REP08_WTA 4,257 1,680.234 0.390 0.407 0.395 0.396
09/03/08     DEM08_WTA 2,318 1,425.049 0.604 0.625 0.615
  • 0.613
09/03/08     REP08_WTA 1,575 618.231 0.385 0.398 0.393 0.395
09/04/08     DEM08_WTA 3,140 1,886.052 0.590 0.622 0.601
  • 0.595
09/04/08     REP08_WTA 5,018 2,013.018 0.385 0.419 0.401 0.409
09/05/08     DEM08_WTA 2,741 1,635.848 0.580 0.649 0.597
  • 0.649
09/05/08     REP08_WTA 2,366 973.767 0.406 0.419 0.412 0.411
09/06/08     DEM08_WTA 755 464.994 0.590 0.625 0.616
  • 0.624
09/06/08     REP08_WTA 216 86.847 0.395 0.406 0.402 0.395
09/07/08     DEM08_WTA 2,915 1,704.956 0.560 0.622 0.585
  • 0.560
09/07/08     REP08_WTA 3,131 1,300.851 0.390 0.440 0.415 0.440
09/08/08     DEM08_WTA 1,800 1,011.800 0.549 0.585 0.562
  • 0.585
09/08/08     REP08_WTA 1,381 616.977 0.429 0.456 0.447 0.429
09/09/08     DEM08_WTA 1,250 720.666 0.560 0.592 0.577
  • 0.576
09/09/08     REP08_WTA 2,619 1,138.070 0.419 0.448 0.435 0.434

On the day of wrting Obama still leaves the Winner Take All Market by 0.567 to 0.441 which again roughly comes to a 56.7% odds on Obama and 44.1% on Obama

Intereting to see the next couple weeks.  The lay of the land is so in Obama's favour, and frankly for Palin things can only really get worse.  She had a very strong start and rescued the RNC.  But

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